Truckload Market Recovery Slowed by Lingering Economic Doubts

Despite signs that the truckload market is preparing for a rebound, economic headwinds continue to push the timeline further out. This week’s FreightWaves Chart of the Week—tracking the Outbound Tender Reject Index (OTRI) and the National Truckload Index (linehaul only)—offers a snapshot of a market caught in limbo.

Over the past two years, both OTRI and NTIL have shown an upward trend marked by growing volatility. But 2025 has so far bucked that trend. In the first five months of the year, both spot rates and tender rejections have flattened, underscoring the chilling effect that persistent economic uncertainty has had on freight demand.

Truckload Demand Still in Decline

The trucking industry remains in one of its most extended and difficult downturns since deregulation. Truckload volumes are down roughly 30% from their pandemic-era highs. While those levels were unsustainable in the long run, they inflated trucking capacity far beyond what current demand can support.

From June 2020 to October 2022, the number of active truckload carriers surged by nearly 48%. Since then, the decline in operating authorities has been only 12%, indicating a sluggish capacity correction. Much of that lag is due to delays in federal data collection; the FMCSA can take up to two years to deactivate inactive carriers unless they voluntarily deregister. Tools like Carrier Details provide more timely insights, reducing the lag to around a year—but the data still trails reality.

Importantly, a single operating authority can represent anything from one truck to an entire fleet, making the number of authorities a rough, not definitive, proxy for actual capacity.

Tender Rejections Signal a Shift

The OTRI—a widely used metric to measure market tightness—acts as a barometer for balance between freight supply and demand. When capacity is loose, carriers tend to accept nearly every load, keeping rejection rates low. When capacity tightens, rejections rise as carriers get more selective.

After nearly two years of steady correction, capacity looked close to equilibrium by the end of 2024. Over the winter holidays, the OTRI surpassed 10% for the first time since 2021—despite shippers shifting longer hauls to intermodal options due to early inventory pull-forwards.

Trade Policy Fuels Further Disruption

Trade tensions have further muddled market signals. After easing slightly in April and May, new tariffs reignited uncertainty, triggering another round of shifts in freight behavior. Import data from summer 2024 shows a brief surge in container volumes headed for the U.S., followed by wild fluctuations.

While container imports can hint at future trucking demand, they are a notoriously unreliable predictor during unstable periods—something the industry has grappled with since COVID-19. Today’s import strength is largely precautionary, with a significant share of goods sitting idle in warehouses due to lack of clarity on trade policy and weakening consumer confidence.

Economic Uncertainty Grows

Broader economic indicators suggest the U.S. economy is either pausing—or worse, slowing. Business investment has stalled. Trade policy remains a wild card. Hiring is cooling, and initial jobless claims have steadily risen since January after improving in late 2024. While labor market data still appears strong on paper, the trend is undeniably negative.

With inflation lingering and investment pulling back, the combination of macroeconomic stressors could lead to a further pullback in consumer demand. The trucking industry, closely tied to consumer and industrial activity, is particularly vulnerable to these shifts.

Market Rebalancing Is Underway

Still, not all the news is bleak. The fact that tender rejection rates have remained above 6% since mid-May—even as demand remains soft—suggests meaningful capacity has finally left the market. That’s a stark contrast to last year, when overstocked inventories pushed rejection rates to near-record lows below 3%.

This subtle shift implies the market is much closer to equilibrium. Although demand hasn’t picked up yet, fewer trucks are competing for freight, which is good news for carriers and 3PLs bracing for tighter margins.

Shippers should take note: if economic conditions improve, the truckload market could pivot sharply. Even without a major rebound, the road ahead could get bumpier. Reduced capacity combined with unpredictable policy and economic trends means more complex and costly freight decisions for supply chain stakeholders.

About the Chart of the Week

FreightWaves’ Chart of the Week highlights a compelling visual from SONAR, offering insight into current freight market dynamics. Each chart is chosen from thousands available on the SONAR platform, curated by market experts who provide real-time commentary on trends that matter to supply chain professionals.

SONAR pulls data from hundreds of sources, translating them into easy-to-understand visuals and context that allow users to stay ahead of market movements. The platform continues to evolve, with the FreightWaves data science and product teams regularly rolling out new datasets and enhancements.

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Conclusion:

The truckload market continues to hover at a critical inflection point. While signs of a long-awaited recovery are emerging—such as rising tender rejection rates and shrinking capacity—the weight of economic uncertainty, volatile trade policy, and sluggish consumer demand continues to stall momentum. For now, the market remains in a fragile balance, with soft demand offset by a slow but steady contraction in available trucking capacity.

Shippers should stay vigilant. If macroeconomic conditions improve—even modestly—the market could tighten rapidly, driving up rates and straining logistics networks. Conversely, if the broader economy weakens further, carriers may face renewed pressure. Either way, the current calm is unlikely to last. Stakeholders across the freight industry would do well to prepare for disruption, whether from recovery or retrenchment.