Bitcoin Price Rises — But Middle East Tensions Could Still Sink Crypto Below $100K

Bitcoin is back in recovery mode. After a sharp weekend dip driven by heightened geopolitical risks, the world’s most valuable cryptocurrency began the week with a fresh bounce. As of Monday, Bitcoin (BTC) had risen 1.3% over the previous 24 hours, climbing to $106,818, according to CoinDesk. It’s still trading about 5% below its all-time high set just last month, but the rebound signals investors are cautiously regaining their risk appetite.

Yet, beneath the surface of this short-term rally lies a potential threat that could spell trouble for Bitcoin’s current price level: the volatile and escalating conflict between Israel and Iran. While crypto enthusiasts have long promoted Bitcoin as a kind of “digital gold” — a hedge in times of crisis — the recent selloff exposed cracks in that narrative. And depending on how tensions in the Middle East unfold, Bitcoin could find itself back below the psychologically important $100,000 mark.

The Rebound: Crypto Rises Alongside Equities

Monday’s rally wasn’t unique to Bitcoin. Global markets showed signs of stabilization following last week’s jitters. Futures tied to the S&P 500 pointed to a rebound, and other major cryptocurrencies followed suit.

• Ethereum (ETH) surged 4% to $5,814.
• Solana (SOL) jumped 7.7% to $218.
• XRP added 1.9% to reach $0.63.
• Cardano (ADA) edged up 0.5%.

The broad rally reflected a collective sigh of relief across financial markets. Investors appeared to believe that the weekend had passed without further escalation in the Iran-Israel conflict, allowing risk assets to catch their breath.

But relief may be fleeting.

Safe Haven? Not So Fast

Bitcoin has often been described as “digital gold,” a decentralized hedge against inflation, currency debasement, and geopolitical chaos. Yet in practice, the token frequently trades like a tech stock — rallying when investor sentiment is strong and selling off during times of panic.

That’s precisely what happened on Friday, when reports emerged of Israel launching airstrikes on Iran in response to Tehran’s drone and missile attacks. As equities dipped and oil prices jumped, Bitcoin plunged, falling sharply from last week’s levels. The move showed that in moments of acute geopolitical stress, Bitcoin is still perceived as a risk-on asset, not a shelter.

“The situation in the Middle East would need to deteriorate rapidly and enter a more dangerous phase for Bitcoin to fall below $100,000,” said Kathleen Brooks, research director at foreign exchange broker XTB. “But that risk is very real and cannot be ignored.”

In other words, while Bitcoin may have room to rally from here, it’s also skating on thin ice.

Why $100,000 Is a Key Level

The $100,000 level has become something of a psychological benchmark for Bitcoin. After years of volatility, the six-figure mark was a milestone eagerly watched by retail investors and institutional players alike. It represents a threshold of maturity for crypto — a level at which it is no longer considered fringe.

Dropping back below that level could undermine investor confidence, especially if it coincides with broader economic or geopolitical instability.

A few key reasons why this level matters:

1. Investor Sentiment: Round numbers serve as psychological support. Falling below $100K could trigger a wave of selling from momentum traders and retail buyers who view it as a failed breakout.
2. Institutional Exposure: Hedge funds, family offices, and corporate treasuries that have recently piled into Bitcoin may rethink their exposure if price action starts to look too erratic or tied to global turmoil.
3. ETF Flows: The introduction of U.S.-based Bitcoin ETFs has increased institutional exposure to BTC. If prices fall and volatility spikes, it could reduce inflows or even trigger outflows from these funds, compounding pressure.

What Could Sink Bitcoin Below $100K?

Though Bitcoin has shown resilience, the risks tied to the Middle East conflict remain very real — and could be the catalyst for a more significant correction.

Here are a few scenarios that could drive Bitcoin below $100,000:

• Direct U.S. Involvement: If the U.S. is pulled into the Israel-Iran conflict, market fear would likely spike. That kind of escalation could cause a broad risk-off move across all assets, crypto included.
• Disruption to Oil Supplies: Any attack or threat that disrupts oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz — a key global shipping chokepoint — could send oil prices soaring, raise inflation expectations, and cause investors to pull back from speculative assets.
• Cyberwarfare or Infrastructure Attacks: If tensions escalate to involve cyberattacks targeting financial infrastructure — a plausible scenario given Iran and Israel’s history of digital warfare — confidence in digital systems could drop, taking crypto prices with it.
• Flight to Cash or Gold: In a true global panic, investors typically run toward ultra-safe assets like U.S. Treasury bonds or gold. Crypto, with its volatility and risk profile, is unlikely to be a first-choice refuge.

What Comes Next for Bitcoin?

Despite the geopolitical risks, there are still bullish tailwinds for Bitcoin. The recent halving, which cut miner rewards and reduces new supply, historically correlates with long-term price gains. Institutional adoption also continues to grow, especially with the rise of regulated crypto ETFs and major asset managers like BlackRock and Fidelity stepping into the space.

But the next few weeks — even days — could be decisive. If the Middle East conflict cools, Bitcoin could make another push toward its all-time highs. But if tensions flare again, especially in unexpected ways, the crypto market could be in for another sharp correction.

Investors are watching not just charts but headlines. Because in this market, missiles and macro matters move prices just as much as momentum and mining.

Final Thoughts

Bitcoin’s bounce on Monday offers a reprieve — but not necessarily a roadmap. The market remains jittery, sensitive to geopolitics, and uncertain about what lies ahead. For now, the six-figure threshold is holding. But as the conflict in the Middle East simmers, the floor beneath Bitcoin could give way.

Whether Bitcoin proves to be a true safe haven or just another high-risk asset remains an open question — one that could be answered in the coming weeks depending on how world events unfold.

In the meantime, traders and investors would do well to keep one eye on the charts and the other firmly on the headlines. Because in crypto, stability is as fleeting as it is illusory.